3pm Weather Update

At 3pm, temperatures are ranging in the 50°'s to lower 60°'s across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. Light showers continue to move across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Light rain is starting to become more widespread across western Kentucky.

As previously mentioned, one of the limiting factors for severe weather today/tonight could be the lack of dew points high enough to sustain severe storms. At 3pm, dew points ranged from 36° in Paducah, KY to 47° in Poplar Bluff, MO. For severe storms, I would like to see our dew points climb to the middle 50°'s.

Saying that, dew points are rapidly climbing just south of the above mentioned area. The dew point is 54° in Dyersburg, TN and 57° in Blytheville, AR. This is an indication that there is a warm front sitting over the area. North of the front, dew points remain low. South of the warm front, dew points are higher.

Here is the latest Day 1 Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. It runs from now through 7am Saturday. The area remains in a "Slight Risk".

The interesting note is reading further in to the discussion behind the Outlook. Here is a section from the product issued from the SPC.

   ELSEWHERE...HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES WERE EXTENDED EWD THROUGH
  NERN AR/SERN MO INTO WRN PARTS OF KY/TN.  WHILE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
  AN MCS IS STILL ANTICIPATED...THE COMBINATION OF THE STEEP LAPSE
  RATES...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL
  SHEAR ALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
  OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF ANY LARGER-SCALE TSTM
  CLUSTER.

They seem to be interested in the idea of embedded tornadoes inside thunderstorms with the thunderstorm complex that moves through overnight.

This will be something to keep an eye on.

Tonight will be a good night to turn on your NOAA Weather Radio before you go to bed in case there are warnings issued for your area.