Right now it still appears we could see some severe weather activity across the KFVS viewing area Thursday and Friday.
The Storm Prediction Center has parts of southeast Missouri, western Kentucky in a "Slight Risk" of severe weather in their Day 2 Outlook. They have also issued their first "Moderate Risk" for 2011 and it includes parts of the KFVS viewing area in northwest Tennessee, northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri.
Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook
The area in orange indicates "Moderate Risk". The area in yellow indicates "Slight Risk".
Computer models are still somewhat split as to the track of the surface low. The track of the low will be key in determining where the severe weather threat exists. If the storm tracks further north, the threat will be higher for the KFVS viewing area. If the low remains on more of a southerly track, parts of the extreme southern area of the KFVS viewing are could see a chance for severe storms.
Even if we don't see "severe thunderstorms" we could still have issues. It is looking like it will be very wet over the next 36 hours. The threat for flash flooding exists. Computer models are suggesting anywhere from 1" to as much as 4" of rain for the area.
For much more detailed information watch the video posted above in this blog post.
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