Wednesday Afternoon Update

Still looking like an accumulating snow for much of the Midwest. As is usually the case, some will get much more than others. Totals could range from a dusting to as much as 10”.

In my last post I mentioned that I was waiting for the European forecast agency’s computer model to come in. The data is in and it is keeping in line with the GFS model.

Here is a breakdown of the amount of liquid is available to produce snow according to the European model. I am still looking at ratios generally being around 14:1 to 16:1. Some places could be as high as 18:1.

CITY: EURO LIQUID | SNOW RANGE USING ABOVE RATIOS

• Cape Girardeau, MO: 0.08” | 1.1” - 1.3”
• Carbondale, IL: 0.08” | 1.1” – 1.3”
• Champaign, IL: 0.25” | 3.5” - 4.25”
• Chicago, IL: 0.52” | 8.3” – 9.4”
• Columbus, IN: 0.11” | 1.5” – 1.9”
• Harrisburg, IL: 0.08” | 1.1” – 1.3”
• Indianapolis, IN: 0.18” | 2.7” – 3”
• Mt. Vernon, IL: 0.11” | 1.5” – 1.8”
• Paducah, KY: 0.09” | 1.2” – 1.4”
• Poplar Bluff, MO: 0.03” | 0.4” – 0.5”

Those are a lot of numbers to dissect, but you can see that the range could be from a dusting to 10”+.

Here’s a couple of graphical maps indicating snowfall amounts from two computer models, the North American Model (NAM) and the global forecast model (GFS).

NAM:



GFS:


I want to stress that this isn’t my final forecast as to how much snow will fall. The numbers listed/represented above come straight from a computer model. I am still going with the numbers I had mentioned earlier (Cape Girardeau: 0.75" - 1.5" | Indianapolis: 2"-4" | St. Louis: 2"-3") but I will likely be putting out a more detailed snow forecast later this evening.

Winter Weather Advisories are now posted for much of central Indiana and central/northern Illinois. Remember you can get the latest winter advisories, warnings and watches on my blog by clicking on the “Warnings & Watches” tab at the top of the page.

You can also get the latest by following me on Twitter as I'll be posting updates through the evening and tomorrow. Follow @johndissauer.


- Posted from my iPhone